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            《2020年國際鉑鈀價格預測報告》系列之一

            2020-05-18 10:18
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              Platinum and Palladium in 2020 and Beyond

              2020年鉑鈀預測

             


             

              The markets and prices of platinum and palladium were due for some major changes in 2020, after developments over the past few years that astounded and surprised many.

              鉑和鈀的市場和價格將在2020年發生一些重大變化,它們此前幾年的發展令許多人感到震驚和驚訝。


              Then came the novel coronavirus pandemic, the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and the immediate plunge of most countries’ economies into deep recessions. These developments hit fabrication demand for these metals hard and drove prices sharply lower in the two weeks between the time HSE requested this article from CPM and the time we were writing it.

              隨后出現了新型冠狀病毒的蔓延、沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯之間的石油價格戰,以及大多數國家的經濟緊接著陷入深度衰退。從上海華通鉑銀交易市場向CPM集團要求撰寫本文的兩周內,這些事態的發展嚴重打擊了這些金屬的制造需求,并導致其價格大幅下跌。

             

              In reality the outlook for these two sister metals is relatively straight forward. However, given the enormous amount of misinformation, and wildly inaccurate statistics and analysis in these markets, many market participants repeatedly are surprised by developments.

              事實上,這兩種姊妹金屬的前景相對簡單。然而,鑒于這些市場存在大量的錯誤信息和極不準確的統計和分析,許多市場參與者一再對事態發展感到驚訝。

             

              For years the platinum mining companies in South Africa said there were massive ongoing deficits in platinum supply, and the weak platinum prices did not make sense in light of this. In reality, there were massive surpluses, and the weak platinum prices were perfectly logical if you understood this.

              南非的鉑金礦業公司多年來一直表示,鉑金供應持續嚴重短缺,鑒于這一點,疲軟的鉑金價格是毫無道理的。如果實際上鉑金存在大量盈余,則疲軟的鉑金價格是完全合乎邏輯的。

             

             

              Now the platinum miners in South Africa say that there have been and continue to be massive deficits in palladium. This explains the sharp rise in palladium prices, they say. They also say that fabrication demand for palladium from the auto industry had been very strong, at least up to the middle part of March when the global economy fell apart. This latter assertion was in start contrast to comments by the world’ largest palladium producer in Russia, which said that the high prices had reduced auto demand for palladium and that the price increase reflected investors and speculators buying and hoarding palladium, not fabrication demand. The Russian view was amply supported by market data and information, seeming much more credible.

              現在,南非的鉑金礦商表示,鈀金已經存在并將持續存在大量短缺。他們表示,這解釋了鈀金價格的大幅上漲。他們還表示,汽車行業對鈀的制造需求非常強勁,至少在3月中旬全球經濟崩潰之前是如此。后一種說法與俄羅斯全球最大的鈀生產商的評論形成鮮明對比,后者表示,高價格降低了汽車對鈀的需求,價格上漲反映的是投資者和投機者購買和囤積鈀,而非制造業需求。俄羅斯的觀點得到了市場數據和信息的充分支持,似乎更加可信。

             

              There are many other commonly accepted ideas in platinum and palladium that are simply not true, and much that is not known or said.

              鉑和鈀中還有許多其他普遍接受的想法根本不是正確的,而且很多都是未知或未被說出來的。

             

              For example, auto makers have been substituting small amount of platinum for palladium in catalysts for gasoline-powered vehicles. This has been ignored or denied. Now the pace will accelerate as vehicles re-engineered to take more platinum intense cars come into production. This move is being heralded as being made possible through the invention of trimetallic ‘three-way catalytic converters.’ In reality, these three-way converters were the standard catalysts used on virtually every car that took a catalyst from 1980, when the U.S. phased in nitrous and nitric oxide emission standards, into the turn of the century, when a combination of wild gyrations in palladium prices, emission standards coming into being for diesel catalysts, recessionary auto markets, and other factors led to a move toward a vastly more heterogenous range of auto catalysts being manufactured and used. Three-way catalysts were the work-horses of emission control technology since emission standards first were introduced by the U.S. government in the 1970s.

              例如,汽車制造商一直在汽油動力汽車的催化劑中用少量的鉑代替鈀。這一點之前被忽略或否認了?,F在,隨著汽車的重新設計更多的鉑金密集型汽車的生產,這一步伐將會加快。這一舉措被認為是通過發明三金屬“三元催化轉化器”而實現的。事實上,1980年以來這些三元轉化器是幾乎每輛采用催化劑的汽車的標準催化劑。進入世紀之交,美國逐步采用一氧化二氮和一氧化氮排放標準市,鈀價格劇烈波動、柴油催化劑的排放標準出臺、衰退的汽車市場以及其他因素共同作用下,汽車催化劑的生產和使用向更加多樣化的方向發展。自20世紀70年代美國政府首次引入排放標準以來,三元催化器一直是排放控制技術的主力。

             

              The markets for these metals are hit by a wide range of misunderstandings, and not just those put forth by producers and their marketing agents.

              這些金屬的市場受到各種誤解的影響,不僅僅是生產者及其銷售代理提出的錯誤觀點。

             

              There are wildly over optimistic projections about how fast electric vehicles may gain market share, overlooking enormous structural impediments. As a result, many platinum and palladium market participants, including investment managers, assume the use of these metals to clean exhaust from diesel and gasoline powered vehicles will disappear far more quickly than should reasonably be expected. This has limited investment into the metals and the mining companies, and has skewed long-term mine development decision making.

              對電動汽車獲得市場份額的速度,人們存在過于樂觀的預測,忽視了巨大的結構性障礙。因此,包括投資經理在內的許多鉑和鈀市場參與者認為,使用這些金屬清潔柴油和汽油動力汽車的廢氣將比合理預期的消失的更快。這限制了對金屬和采礦公司的投資,并扭曲了長期的礦山開發決策。

             

              On the other side, the South African platinum miners and their marketing agents have been projecting that hundreds of thousands of ounces of platinum would be used in fuel cell powered automobiles… since the 1970s. It has yet to happen.

              另一方面,自20世紀70年代以來,南非鉑金礦工及其銷售代理一直預測:燃料電池動力汽車將使用數十萬盎司的鉑。但這尚未發生。

             

              So what about prices in 2020?

              關于2020年的價格?

             

              The charts here show accurate representations of both historical and future balances between these two metals. One can see that the trends for these two metals are reversing in the long-run. For now, platinum remains well supplied while the amount of palladium being refined is rising to surpass the amount of this metals being used in fabricated products.

              此處的圖表準確顯示了這兩種金屬之間歷史和未來的余額??梢钥闯?,從長遠來看,這兩種金屬的趨勢正在逆轉。目前,鉑仍然供應充足,而精煉的鈀量正在上升,已經超過了用于制造產品的鈀金屬的數量。

             

              This means that, setting aside the chaos abroad in the world this year, one might expect palladium prices to stop rising and maybe fall in 2020 and subsequent years.

              這意味著,拋開今年國際市場的混亂不談,人們可能預計鈀價格將在2020年及其后幾年停止上漲,甚至可能下跌。

             

              Platinum meanwhile would be expected to remain relatively low for a while, until the market balance of newly refined platinum entering the market relative to fabrication demand tightened further.

              與此同時,預計鉑金價格將在一段時間內保持在相對較低的水平,直到新精煉鉑金相對于制造需求進入市場的市場平衡進一步收緊。

             

              The palladium scenario has been fueled further and faster by the virtual collapse of auto production and sales in most of the world. This will keep palladium prices weak during the first half of 2020. If government efforts to resuscitate their economies succeed, by the second half auto production and sales may begin to recover, and palladium prices might stabilize, down from their first quarter peak levels.

              由于全球大部分地區的汽車生產和銷售大幅下降,進一步影響了鈀金的發展前景。這將使鈀金價格在2020年上半年保持疲軟。如果政府為振興經濟所做的努力成功,那么到下半年汽車生產和銷售可能會開始恢復,鈀價格可能會穩定,低于第一季度的最高水平。

             

              For platinum the global economic crisis will prolong its revival. Prices should be expected to remain weak through 2020 and into 2021. Even as the auto industry recovers and auto manufacturers accelerate their shift back to using more platinum at the expense of palladium, the platinum market will remain well supplied for the next few years, limiting price increases until such time as investors awake to the realities of (a) recovering auto production and sales, (b) an accelerated shift back toward platinum in catalysts, and (c) the reality that future motive energy supplies will not replace the need for platinum, palladium, and rhodium in catalysts for many years.

              對于鉑金而言,全球經濟危機將延長其復蘇。預計到2020年和2021年,價格將保持疲軟。即使汽車行業復蘇,汽車制造商加速轉向以鈀為代價使用更多鉑金,未來幾年鉑金市場仍將保持良好的供應,限制價格上漲,直到投資者意識到(a)恢復汽車生產和銷售,(b)加速在催化劑中轉向鉑,以及(c)未來動力能源供應不會取代多年來催化劑中對鉑,鈀和銠的需求的現實。

             

            圖1:當前鉑金市場


            圖2:鉑金供應

                                                                   

            圖3:制造業需求


            圖4:燃料電池


                                     

            圖5:CPM集團的PGM十年預測報告

            圖6:年度鈀金供應



            圖7:鈀金的年度加工需求




            《2020年國際鉑鈀價格預測報告》重磅發布


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