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            It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To(您最好傾聽的不止是鈀金)

            2020-05-21 14:58
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              Whenever one hears the words precious metals, gold and silver spring to mind. But this world is much richer, and precious metals don’t end with the yellow or white metal. The less well known cousins, platinum and palladium, can and do send valuable signals too. Before we examine silver, let’s take a look at something interesting in palladium.


              當人們提起貴金屬,首先想到的是黃金和白銀。但是這個世界要豐富的多,而貴金屬不僅僅以黃色或白色金屬結尾,還有鉑和鈀這兩個不太為人所知的表兄弟,他們也在做著有價值的事情。在考察白銀之前,讓我們看一下鈀中的一些有趣的東西。

             

             

             

              The interesting detail is palladium’s weakness. This precious metal was the one that soared most profoundly in the past few years and while it recovered some of its 2020 declines recently, it appears to be back in the bearish mode as its unable to keep gained ground, even despite the move higher in the general stock market.


              有趣的細節是鈀的弱點。這種貴金屬是過去幾年中漲幅最大的一種,直到2020年它出現了衰退,似乎回到了下跌行情,無法找到它的支撐,即使股市處于上漲行情。

             

              The previous leader is now definitely lagging. And you know what was leading? The previous laggard – gold stocks. And you know what is leading now? Silver – as it usually does in the final part of the upswing. The HUI Index is marked with brown in the bottom part of the chart. When leaders are lagging, and laggards are leading, one should recognize that the market is topping – and that’s the key take-away from the palladium and platinum analysis right now.


              以前的領導者現在肯定落后了。你知道是什么導致的嗎?此前表現落后的是黃金股。而且您知道現在的趨勢是什么嗎?銀價–通常在上升的最后階段。HUI指數在圖表的底部標記為棕色。當領導者落后而落后者領先時,人們應該認識到市場到達頂端 —— 這是目前從鈀和鉑分析中得出的關鍵結論。

             

              Palladium was the leader and platinum was actually one of the laggards. Palladium was down by 0.43 last week. And what did platinum do?


              鈀金是領先者,而鉑金實際上是落后者之一。上周鈀金下跌0.43。鉑金做了什么?

             

             

              

              Platinum rallied by 3.52% last week.


              上周,鉑金上漲了3.52%。

             

              The big rally in platinum to palladium ratio is yet another sign from the relative valuations analysis pointing to a nearby top in the precious metals sector.


              相對鈀金/鈀金比率的大幅上漲是相對估值分析的又一個信號,表明貴金屬行業已接近見頂。

             

              Having said that, let’s take a look at silver’s forecast. In case of the white metal, its ratio to gold might be more important at this time than price itself.


              話雖如此,讓我們看看白銀的預測。對于白色金屬,此時它與黃金的比例可能比價格本身更為重要。

             

             

             

              The silver futures are trading at $17.73, and gold futures are trading at $1,773, which means that in case of the futures market, the gold to silver ratio has just moved to the 100 level.


              白銀期貨的交易價格為17.73美元,黃金期貨的交易價格為1,773美元,這意味著在期貨市場上,金銀比率已經上升到100水平。

             

              Earlier this year, the gold to silver ratio had broken above the very long-term and critical resistance of 100. Is it really that surprising that silver is verifying the breakout by moving back to the previously broken level? It’s not.


              今年早些時候,金銀比已經突破了長期和關鍵阻力位100。真的令人驚訝的是,銀價正在突破回到之前的標準么?它不是。

             

              The key ratio for the precious metals market has just moved back to the previously broken resistance level and it’s verifying it as support. This is relatively normal that after a breakout, the price or ratio moves to the previously broken level.


              貴金屬市場的關鍵比率剛剛回到先前打破的阻力水平,并且正在證實它是支撐。這是相對正常的,即在突破之后,價格或比率將移動到先前的突破水平。

             

             

              

              Yes, on a short-term basis, and looking at silver chart alone, the breakout above the April highs and a quick move to the early-March highs was a clearly bullish phenomenon. However, this ignores the fact that silver is known for its fakeouts (fake breakouts) and that looking at its relative performance to gold has been more useful (and profitable) than looking at its individual technical developments, especially if they were not confirmed by analogous moves in gold.


              是的,從短期來看,僅看銀價圖表,突破4月高點并迅速升至3月初高點,顯然是看漲的現象。然而,這忽略了以下事實:白銀以其“假突破”而聞名,而研究白銀相對于黃金的相對表現,要比研究單個技術發展更有用(且更有利可圖),尤其是如果它們沒有得到黃金類似走勢的證實的話。

             

              Consequently, we view the current action in silver as bearish, not bullish, especially since the gold to silver ratio moved back to the very strong support level (100), which likely means that silver’s strength relative to gold is over, at least for some time.


              因此,我們認為白銀當前的走勢是熊市,而不是牛市,尤其是因為金銀比率回到非常強勁的支撐位(100),這可能意味著白銀相對于黃金的強勢已經結束,至少在一段時間內是這樣。

             

              All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


              以上發現的所有論文,研究和信息僅代表Przemyslaw Radomski,CFA和Sunshine Profits員工的分析和看法。因此,它可能被證明是錯誤的,如有更改,恕不另行通知。觀點和分析基于撰寫本文時各論文作者可獲得的數據。盡管以上提供的信息是基于認真研究和認為準確的信息來源,但CFA Przemyslaw Radomski及其同事不保證所報告數據或信息的準確性或完整性。以上發表的意見既不是要約也不是購買或出售任何證券的建議。Radomski先生不是注冊證券顧問。通過閱讀Przemyslaw Radomski的作品,CFA報告您完全同意,對于您就這些報告中提供的任何信息做出的任何決定,他將不承擔任何責任。在任何金融市場中進行投資,交易和投機都可能帶來很高的損失風險。Przemyslaw Radomski,CFA,Sunshine Profits的員工和關聯公司及其家庭成員可能在任何證券(包括任何報告或論文中提及的證券)中擁有淡倉或長期倉位,并可能進行其他購買和/或出售這些證券,恕不另行通知。





              

              This article was originally published in FX empire and was eventually compiled by China silver net.

              該文章最初發表于FX帝國,最終由中國白銀網編譯?! ?/p>


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