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            《2020年國際鉑鈀價格預測報告》系列之六—— Metals Focus的創始合伙人之一 — Nikos Kavalis

            2020-05-27 09:37
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            《2020年國際鉑鈀價格預測報告》系列之六

            約克大學計量經濟學學士學位和倫敦經濟學院計量經濟學和數理經濟學碩士學位、Metals Focus的創始合伙人之一 — Nikos Kavalis



              Introduction & market backdrop


              簡介及市場背景


              The platinum and palladium markets are particularly exposed to the evolving COVID-19 crisis. Lock-downs around the world have already caused disruptions to both demand and supply of the two metals and this is something that will no doubt continue for some time to come. Meanwhile, movement restrictions have hit logistics infrastructures hard and in turn have seen supply chains break down. In turn this has resulted in heightened price volatility.


              新型冠狀病毒的爆發,對鉑鈀市場影響顯著。全球各地的禁閉防范措施已經對其供應和需求造成了干擾,毫無疑問,這種情況還將持續一段時間。與此同時,物流與運輸行業受到了嚴重的沖擊,進而導致供應鏈中斷。造成了價格的劇烈波動。


              This has been particularly pronounced for the palladium price, that has had to contend with a collapse of buying and selling interest in the metal as well as a lack of appetite to take price risk, in the face of heightened uncertainty. Having peaked at over $2,880 in late February, the spot price fell to just under $1,500 by mid-March, a nearly 50% correction, at around the time of the meltdown seen across all markets. It then rebounded sharply and has traded in a $2,100-2,400 range in the few days through to the time of writing, boosted by growing evidence of supply disruptions.


              這一點在鈀價上表現得尤為明顯。在不確定性加劇的情況下,買賣雙方對這種金屬的投資興趣驟減,以及缺乏承擔價格風險的意愿。現貨價格在2月底觸及2,880多美元的高點后,3月中旬,在所有市場都出現暴跌的時候,鈀價出現了近50%的回調,跌至略低于1,500美元的水平。隨后,由于越來越多的證據表明供應中斷,鈀價大幅反彈,在撰寫本文之前的幾天里,鈀價一直在2100美元至2400美元的區間內波動。



              Price action was similarly violent for platinum, that fell from over $1,000 in late February to a low of just over $560. That was the lowest price since 2002, something that resulted in strong physical investment across a number of key markets, including China, Japan and the US. This coupled with news of supply constraints and stronger gold prices saw platinum stage a strong recovery shortly after and has been trading in a $700-750 range more recently.


              同樣,鉑金價格劇烈波動,從2月底的1000多美元跌至略高于560美元的低點。這是自2002年以來的最低價格,導致包括中國、日本和美國在內的多個關鍵市場出現了強勁的實物投資。再加上供應受限和金價走強的消息,鉑金價格不久后強勁反彈,最近一直在700-750美元區間交易。


              Before considering the outlook for palladium and platinum supply and demand in 2020, it is useful to provide some background on trends noted in recent years and the state of the market in 2019. Starting with palladium, the market has seen consistent deficits in recent years. Over the previous decade, these added up to nearly 173t, something that saw palladium above-ground inventories fall from being equivalent to over two years of production in 2010 to just over one year at the end of 2019.


              關于2020年鈀鉑的供需前景,必須參考近年趨勢和2019年市場狀況的背景資料。鈀金方面,近年來,市場出現了持續的短缺。在過去的10年里,累計接近173噸,這導致鈀的地上庫存從2010年相當于兩年以上的產量下降至2019年底的一年以上。


              This persistence of supply shortages for the palladium market has been mainly driven by robust demand from the automotive sector. In 2019, global autocatalyst fabrication reached 280t, 55% higher than our estimate for 2010. In turn this increase has been the result of tightening emissions legislation, growth of overall vehicle production and a rising market share of gasoline powertrains, which have predominantly used palladium. Demand from other applications, like jewellery, electronics and dental, has been declining, but this has only marginally offset the strong gains in automotive demand.


              鈀金市場供應持續短缺,主要原因是汽車行業的強勁需求。我們預計,2019年全球催化劑產量達到280噸,比2010年產量高出55%。這一增長是由于排放法規的加強、汽車總產量的增長以及主要使用鈀的汽油動力系統的市場份額不斷上升。來自珠寶、電子和牙科等其他應用領域的需求一直在下降,但這僅略微抵消了汽車需求的強勁增長。


              Supply has also enjoyed strong gains over the past decade, but these have been less pronounced than the above-mentioned increases in demand. As a result, palladium has over time seen its supply deficit widen.


              過去10年里,盡管鈀金供應出現了強勁增長,但與上述需求相比增長并不明顯。因此,隨著時間的推移,鈀的供應缺口不斷擴大。


              Platinum, in contrast, has suffered from surpluses over most of the past ten years. Demand for the metal has been hurt by diesel losing market share within Europe, traditionally the biggest market for palladium automotive demand. Jewellery has also come under pressure, mainly as a result of structural changes in China, which is by far platinum’s largest jewellery market. All this coupled with modest gains in platinum recycling have seen above-ground stocks rise from being equivalent to around 11 months of demand to 16 last year.


              于此相反,鉑金在過去10年的大部分時間里一直處于過剩狀態。歐洲傳統上是鉑金汽車需求最大的市場,而柴油在歐洲的市場份額不斷下降,給鉑金需求帶來了影響。迄今為止,中國是全球最大的鉑金首飾需求國,由于中國的結構性變化,鉑金首飾業也面臨壓力。再加上鉑金回收的小幅增長,綜合這些因素,鉑金地上庫存從約11個月的需求量上升至去年的16個月。


              Platinum and Palladium Above-Ground Inventories, Months of Demand


             


              Outlook


              展望


              As noted at the start of this report, the COVID crisis has severely impacted both consumption and production capacities for platinum and palladium. Around the world, car production plants have had to shut down to respect movement restrictions and social distancing rules implemented to thwart the spread of the virus. The second order effect of the crisis on vehicle sales will also be important, as consumers postpone car purchases in the face of uncertainty or, worse yet, unemployment. Demand for other key end-products containing platinum and palladium, such as jewellery and consumer electronics, will also suffer in this environment.


              如本報告開頭所述,新型冠狀病毒疫情嚴重影響了鉑鈀的生產和消費能力。在世界各地,為防止病毒傳播,采取了行動限制和社會距離規則等措施,造成了汽車生產工廠被迫關閉。其次,汽車消費也受到嚴重影響,在不確定性或者更糟的失業環境下,消費者會推遲購車。在這種環境下,首飾和消費電子產品等其它含鉑和鈀的關鍵終端產品的需求也將受到影響。


              At the same time, supply is also expected to suffer noteworthy losses this year. Much of South African mine production has been affected by the country’s lock-down. Adding to this, the disruption at Anglo American Platinum’s processing plant, which was not related to the COVID outbreak but rather technical issues, will also weigh on supplies. Meanwhile, just as the challenging economic conditions faced by many consumers will limit their ability to buy new cars, it will also limit their tendency to recycle old vehicles, something that will weigh on scrap supplies.


              與此同時,今年的供應預計也將出現顯著減少。南非的大部分礦山生產都受到了本國封鎖的影響。此外,因為技術問題,英美鉑業暫時關閉其加工廠,這將對供應造成壓力。與此同時,在嚴峻經濟形勢下,消費者購買新車的能力下降,繼而二手汽車的回收也下降,這將對鉑鈀廢料供應造成壓力。


              This makes predicting the overall outcome for these two markets in 2020 exceptionally challenging. At this stage, it looks likely that the declines in PGMs demand will outweigh those of supply, particularly when it comes to palladium. Moreover, as the starting point of platinum is sizeable oversupply, this will most probably remain in place in 2020 overall. In contrast, depending on the extent to which palladium supply and demand decline, the market could remain in a small deficit, become balanced or move into a surplus.


              因此,對2020年鉑鈀市場的預測變得更加具有挑戰性。在目前階段,鉑族金屬需求的下降可能會超過供應下降,尤其是在鈀金方面。此外,由于鉑金存在嚴重的供過于求,在2020年,這種情況很可能會繼續存在。相比之下,根據鈀金供需下降的程度,市場可能會保持小幅赤字,趨于平衡,或出現盈余。


              Our projections for the palladium and platinum are based on the latest figures released by LMC automotive, released in early April. The consultancy now forecasts global light vehicle sales will decline by 14% in 2020, with losses seen across all regions. Based on these inputs, our model suggests that global palladium autocatalyst demand will fall by 11% and platinum demand by 11%, to 249t and 82t.


              根據LMC automotive 4月初發布的最新數據,在2020年,全球輕型汽車銷量將下降14%,所有地區都將出現虧損?;谶@些數據,我們預測:全球的鈀催化劑需求將下降11%,鉑需求將下降11%,分別為249噸和82噸。


              As far as PGM mine supply is concerned, we have made allowances for disruptions related to the 21-day national lock-down that is currently underway in South Africa. The country represents 73% of global platinum and 37% of palladium supply. Outside South Africa, most PGM mining operations are currently continuing relatively undisrupted. Finally, it is worth noting that we have adjusted down our autocatalyst recycling projections to allow for lower scrappage of old cars, as consumers refrain from renewing their vehicle in the face of economic uncertainties.


              鉑族金屬礦供應方面,南非占全球鉑供應量的73%,鈀供應量的37%,目前該國正在進行為期21天的全國封鎖,從而造成了供應的中斷。在南非以外,大多數鉑族金屬采礦業務仍在正常有序的進行。最后,值得注意的是,由于消費者面臨經濟的不確定性而不愿更換汽車,我們調整了汽車尾氣催化劑回收的預測,以降低其中的舊車報廢率。


              Combining the above with our forecasts for other areas of demand and recycling suggests that the palladium market will remain in a small deficit in 2020 overall, while platinum stays in a surplus. As far as prices are concerned, in the near term there are considerable down-side risks for both metals, particularly as it is likely that mine production capacity will come back on-stream faster than automotive demand will. Later in the year however, we expect both palladium and platinum prices to recover. In the case of palladium this will be fuelled by signs of improving fundamentals while for platinum it will be due to its like to gold and the strong performance of the yellow metal we predict.


              我們將上述數據與其它需求和回收領域的預測相結合,從而預測: 2020年鈀金市場總體上仍將保持少量短缺,而鉑市場將保持供大于求。就市場價格而言,在短期內,這兩種金屬都存在相當大的下行風險,尤其是礦山生產能力的恢復速度很可能快于汽車需求的恢復速度。但是,我們預計:今年晚些時候,鈀和鉑的價格都將回升。其中,鈀金將受到基本面改善跡象的推動,而鉑金將由于其與黃金的相似而受到其強勁表現的推動。




            (2020年國際鉑鈀價格預測報告)



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