<ins id="nlz1f"><strike id="nlz1f"></strike></ins>

      <p id="nlz1f"><video id="nlz1f"><ins id="nlz1f"></ins></video></p> <ins id="nlz1f"><i id="nlz1f"><b id="nlz1f"></b></i></ins>
      <del id="nlz1f"></del>

      <progress id="nlz1f"><pre id="nlz1f"></pre></progress><p id="nlz1f"></p><progress id="nlz1f"><strike id="nlz1f"></strike></progress>

          <cite id="nlz1f"></cite>

            歡迎來到華通白銀網! 客服熱線:021-53390919
            首 頁> 資 訊> 有色金屬> 正文

            《2020年國際鉑鈀價格預測報告》系列之六—— Metals Focus的創始合伙人之一 — Nikos Kavalis

            2020-05-27 09:37


            約克大學計量經濟學學士學位和倫敦經濟學院計量經濟學和數理經濟學碩士學位、Metals Focus的創始合伙人之一 — Nikos Kavalis

              Introduction & market backdrop


              The platinum and palladium markets are particularly exposed to the evolving COVID-19 crisis. Lock-downs around the world have already caused disruptions to both demand and supply of the two metals and this is something that will no doubt continue for some time to come. Meanwhile, movement restrictions have hit logistics infrastructures hard and in turn have seen supply chains break down. In turn this has resulted in heightened price volatility.


              This has been particularly pronounced for the palladium price, that has had to contend with a collapse of buying and selling interest in the metal as well as a lack of appetite to take price risk, in the face of heightened uncertainty. Having peaked at over $2,880 in late February, the spot price fell to just under $1,500 by mid-March, a nearly 50% correction, at around the time of the meltdown seen across all markets. It then rebounded sharply and has traded in a $2,100-2,400 range in the few days through to the time of writing, boosted by growing evidence of supply disruptions.


              Price action was similarly violent for platinum, that fell from over $1,000 in late February to a low of just over $560. That was the lowest price since 2002, something that resulted in strong physical investment across a number of key markets, including China, Japan and the US. This coupled with news of supply constraints and stronger gold prices saw platinum stage a strong recovery shortly after and has been trading in a $700-750 range more recently.


              Before considering the outlook for palladium and platinum supply and demand in 2020, it is useful to provide some background on trends noted in recent years and the state of the market in 2019. Starting with palladium, the market has seen consistent deficits in recent years. Over the previous decade, these added up to nearly 173t, something that saw palladium above-ground inventories fall from being equivalent to over two years of production in 2010 to just over one year at the end of 2019.


              This persistence of supply shortages for the palladium market has been mainly driven by robust demand from the automotive sector. In 2019, global autocatalyst fabrication reached 280t, 55% higher than our estimate for 2010. In turn this increase has been the result of tightening emissions legislation, growth of overall vehicle production and a rising market share of gasoline powertrains, which have predominantly used palladium. Demand from other applications, like jewellery, electronics and dental, has been declining, but this has only marginally offset the strong gains in automotive demand.


              Supply has also enjoyed strong gains over the past decade, but these have been less pronounced than the above-mentioned increases in demand. As a result, palladium has over time seen its supply deficit widen.


              Platinum, in contrast, has suffered from surpluses over most of the past ten years. Demand for the metal has been hurt by diesel losing market share within Europe, traditionally the biggest market for palladium automotive demand. Jewellery has also come under pressure, mainly as a result of structural changes in China, which is by far platinum’s largest jewellery market. All this coupled with modest gains in platinum recycling have seen above-ground stocks rise from being equivalent to around 11 months of demand to 16 last year.


              Platinum and Palladium Above-Ground Inventories, Months of Demand




              As noted at the start of this report, the COVID crisis has severely impacted both consumption and production capacities for platinum and palladium. Around the world, car production plants have had to shut down to respect movement restrictions and social distancing rules implemented to thwart the spread of the virus. The second order effect of the crisis on vehicle sales will also be important, as consumers postpone car purchases in the face of uncertainty or, worse yet, unemployment. Demand for other key end-products containing platinum and palladium, such as jewellery and consumer electronics, will also suffer in this environment.


              At the same time, supply is also expected to suffer noteworthy losses this year. Much of South African mine production has been affected by the country’s lock-down. Adding to this, the disruption at Anglo American Platinum’s processing plant, which was not related to the COVID outbreak but rather technical issues, will also weigh on supplies. Meanwhile, just as the challenging economic conditions faced by many consumers will limit their ability to buy new cars, it will also limit their tendency to recycle old vehicles, something that will weigh on scrap supplies.


              This makes predicting the overall outcome for these two markets in 2020 exceptionally challenging. At this stage, it looks likely that the declines in PGMs demand will outweigh those of supply, particularly when it comes to palladium. Moreover, as the starting point of platinum is sizeable oversupply, this will most probably remain in place in 2020 overall. In contrast, depending on the extent to which palladium supply and demand decline, the market could remain in a small deficit, become balanced or move into a surplus.


              Our projections for the palladium and platinum are based on the latest figures released by LMC automotive, released in early April. The consultancy now forecasts global light vehicle sales will decline by 14% in 2020, with losses seen across all regions. Based on these inputs, our model suggests that global palladium autocatalyst demand will fall by 11% and platinum demand by 11%, to 249t and 82t.

              根據LMC automotive 4月初發布的最新數據,在2020年,全球輕型汽車銷量將下降14%,所有地區都將出現虧損?;谶@些數據,我們預測:全球的鈀催化劑需求將下降11%,鉑需求將下降11%,分別為249噸和82噸。

              As far as PGM mine supply is concerned, we have made allowances for disruptions related to the 21-day national lock-down that is currently underway in South Africa. The country represents 73% of global platinum and 37% of palladium supply. Outside South Africa, most PGM mining operations are currently continuing relatively undisrupted. Finally, it is worth noting that we have adjusted down our autocatalyst recycling projections to allow for lower scrappage of old cars, as consumers refrain from renewing their vehicle in the face of economic uncertainties.


              Combining the above with our forecasts for other areas of demand and recycling suggests that the palladium market will remain in a small deficit in 2020 overall, while platinum stays in a surplus. As far as prices are concerned, in the near term there are considerable down-side risks for both metals, particularly as it is likely that mine production capacity will come back on-stream faster than automotive demand will. Later in the year however, we expect both palladium and platinum prices to recover. In the case of palladium this will be fuelled by signs of improving fundamentals while for platinum it will be due to its like to gold and the strong performance of the yellow metal we predict.

              我們將上述數據與其它需求和回收領域的預測相結合,從而預測: 2020年鈀金市場總體上仍將保持少量短缺,而鉑市場將保持供大于求。就市場價格而言,在短期內,這兩種金屬都存在相當大的下行風險,尤其是礦山生產能力的恢復速度很可能快于汽車需求的恢復速度。但是,我們預計:今年晚些時候,鈀和鉑的價格都將回升。其中,鈀金將受到基本面改善跡象的推動,而鉑金將由于其與黃金的相似而受到其強勁表現的推動。